- on 09/26 associate Prof. Dr. Dulyapak Preecharach Deputy Director, Institute of East Asian Studies Lecturer in the Southeast Asian Studies program at Thammasat University Art School “A silent coup in China” Analysis of President Xi Jinping coup rumors in China with all the details as follows
-“About the rumors about Xi Jinping coming to power in China I see that there are two main approaches to explain.
-1. If it is fake news The description would appear as if Xi Jinping was only in quarantine after his return from Uzbekistan. His political silence could also be a matter of security ahead of the Communist Party General Assembly mid-next month in connection with the renewal of his power. Whoever pulls off a coup in China will not have it easy, as the mobilization must pass the decision of the Central Military Commission chaired by Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping is both President. Communist Party secretary And the military commander called “the state, the party, the army” completely under Xi’s power. It is very difficult to shake his power base and Xi also has several policies that make China a global superpower. There is a Belt and Road (BRI) project that has created a turning point in the global geopolitical system. Therefore, with a large number of policy achievements, there is likely to be a large base of businessmen or citizens willing to support or defend Mr. Xi’s policies.
-2. But whether it’s true news or enough to be believable The description emphasizes that Xi’s trip to Uzbekistan was the perfect time to seize power. Because it was Xi’s first trip abroad in two years. Xi also flew back from Uzbekistan abruptly and prematurely and has since disappeared. The seizure of power by senior leaders is not uncommon in Chinese politics: Zhao Ziyang, former party vice president and general secretary of the Communist Party, faced lifelong political crackdowns and house arrest. Although Xi has ruled the entire state, party and army, it is difficult for anyone to overthrow Xi’s power. But when the coalition of power networks of China’s famous former leaders like Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao join a group of senior party and state leaders recently wiped out and prosecuted by the law. Also, the generals may not be happy with the role of the color in the Central Military Commission. It can be a blob of power powerful enough to break or overthrow Xi’s power.
-Furthermore, Xi is breaking the tradition of Chinese succession by renewing power for a third term and changing the collective leadership system that was the practice of political decision-making in the previous era. For example, during the time of Jiang Zemin Become a single leader, in which the main decision-making powers are solely in the hands of Xi Jinping. It would cause dissatisfaction among some political groups that they would have to join forces to balance or overthrow their powers. And taking power ahead of the General Assembly in the middle of next month is perfect timing.
-Personally, I think the likelihood of Xi staging a coup is highly unpredictable and the percentage that it happens is very small. Many scholars have also listened to the flag that Xi Jinping’s coup is definitely fake news. But when we say that a coup in this context means a silent coup in which part or part of Xi’s power is forfeited to result in a new power structure in the Chinese political system. It is the imprisonment of the leader and those close to him. Instead of removing tanks from key strategic points across Beijing and closing airways. Parallel streets Having some data can be enough to analyze each other.
-In China’s party-state structure, where the state, the party, the army are the main turbochargers, state power comes out of the barrel of a gun. But the party must hold the gun barrel firmly in place. In what condition? The army is not a political institution in which command is solely in the hands of its leaders. But there will be party leaders who will take control of the army’s chain of command. In this respect, the military coup is difficult because the army cannot be separated from the party. An elite group in state, party and military structures unhappy with Xi’s excessive consolidation and duration of rule. Work together to coordinate the powers of all political institutions. It could also be brought together in this power pole to control and force Xi to resign or compromise his political role. Pushing Xi out of both top positions in the party, state and army would require tremendous effort and very high risk. But if the color is cut off from any position, for example, only removed from the army It may not require much energy. But there are risks. Because right now, people in Lord Xi’s line control many important positions in the army. But it’s not that this is impossible. (There have also been rumors that some Chinese military leaders are dissatisfied with their policies of retaliation against the United States and Taiwan, including China’s security policy towards India and the evolving Chinese attitude towards the Russo-Ukrainian war).
-If it is true that the rumors that Xi has been removed from the military circle of control are true. It is necessary to analyze who will take over the Chinese People’s Liberation Army: in the case of General Li Qiaoming (rumored to be the supreme power in the Chinese army), he came from the Northern Army. But will the position of supreme commander be enough to become the number one in the Chinese army? Because it’s not the most powerful position in the army. Unless this general has other special political powers than helpers.
-Well, we don’t know exactly how much to trust news of a silent coup in China. The best answer to this question is the public presence of color, but the question of confiscation or demoralization of color is not academic madness about the inheritance of color What 2022 has both a departure from power and an orderly political transition. The way that Xi will renew his power and plan to resign at the 21st or 22nd Congress, i.e. 2027 and 2032, or Xi will be challenged and subject to a coup. and even the sudden and unexpected death of Xi Lowe’s prognosis This is due in part to an undercurrent of smaller political parties unhappy with Xi’s over-consolidation of power and in part to the pattern of succession issues emerging in authoritarian states across the country and in the modern Chinese political history are common.
-In addition, Roger Garside’s book China Coup, a scholar of diplomatic politics, published by the University of California Press in 2021, analyzes that President Xi Jinping will soon face a coup by political rivals. This is mainly due to the self-overestimation of the color strength. As a result, the color has many political enemies, although after the coup Garside sees the color China becoming more democratic (Not sure if Garside looks like that or if China is still a totalitarian party state.) But the academic controversies and information in Garsides Book burden the power and game structure issues. China’s elite politics is so small that it seems that Xi’s road to power is periodically paved with obstacles.
-Finally, even if the news of the Chinese coup is true or false, or partly true, partly false, but the scene around the seizure of power or the degradation of color is already formed. Color’s political path from now on It’s wonderful.”
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